🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Sandviken 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helsingborg beat Sandviken 0-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.42 xG and Helsingborg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Helsingborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 36% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 38%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, Helsingborg 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Helsingborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.38 PPG, Helsingborg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights