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Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Sandviken 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Sandviken 0-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.06 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 34% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 37%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 67%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.43 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights