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Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Ostersunds FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Ostersunds FK 1-6 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.91 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.39 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 49% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 28%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 49%, Vasteras SK FK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.16 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights