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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Utsikten 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Utsikten 2-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 2.04 xG and Utsikten 1.13 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Utsikten attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 58% | Draw 22% | Utsikten 20%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Utsikten 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Utsikten's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.15 PPG, Utsikten 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights