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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ostersunds FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Umeå FC 3-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.95 xG and Umeå FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Umeå FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Umeå FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 52% | Draw 24% | Umeå FC 24%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, Umeå FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Umeå FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Umeå FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights