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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 2.21 xG and Trelleborg 1.29 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.43, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 58% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 22%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 48%, Trelleborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Trelleborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.17 PPG, Trelleborg 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights