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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK and Sandviken share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Ostersunds FK and Sandviken drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.64 xG and Sandviken 1.14 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 49% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 27%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.17 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights