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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Orgryte IS 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.53 xG and Orgryte IS 1.34 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.18 / defence 1.18 against Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 42% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 33%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 48%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.29 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights