Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Jamtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Jamtkraft Arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Oddevold have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Ostersunds FK, 1.40 for Oddevold — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Oddevold — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 51% versus Oddevold 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 45% | Oddevold 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.36 xG and Oddevold 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.908 / defence 0.777 | Oddevold attack 1.016 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Ostersunds FK's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Ostersunds FK games / 51 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 43% | Draw 30% | Oddevold 27%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Oddevold 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 50% | Oddevold 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 43% | Draw 30% | Oddevold 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.36 / Oddevold 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.908 / def 0.777 | Oddevold attack 1.016 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Oddevold xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 43% chance of winning, Oddevold a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Oddevold?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 3W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Oddevold in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (1.02x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.33
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.38
1.02
Oddevold xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.02 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 17D 16L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.51 PPG from 51 outings (20W 17D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.51 for Oddevold. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 13W 7D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (10W 10D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.49 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold in 61%.
Defensively: Oddevold in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 17D 16L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 20W 17D 14L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Oddevold away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.84 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Oddevold in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oddevold — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Oddevold have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oddevold 1-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 60%, Oddevold 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ostersunds FK) and 48% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Oddevold in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ostersunds FK's games and 56% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 48% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Oddevold tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.