🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Oddevold cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ostersunds FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oddevold beat Ostersunds FK 1-3 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.14 xG and Oddevold 1.66 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oddevold outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Oddevold attack 1.20 / defence 0.75, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 49%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Oddevold 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.17 PPG, Oddevold 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights