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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 3-3 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights