Ostersunds FK 3-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Jamtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Ostersunds FK, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Landskrona BoIS — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ostersunds FK and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 62% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.011 / defence 0.995 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.986 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.174. Data: 31 Ostersunds FK games / 31 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.29 / Landskrona BoIS 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.011 / def 0.995 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.986 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 40% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (6 meetings): Ostersunds FK 4W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.01x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.99x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.66
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.15 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 20W 18D 22L from 60 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 22L across 60 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 11W 5D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.73 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Ostersunds FK, 57% for Landskrona BoIS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Ostersunds FK and 63% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ostersunds FK's games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 63% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 3-3 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.