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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Ostersunds FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF finished level at 0-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.33 xG and Kalmar FF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.16 / defence 1.32 against Kalmar FF attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 27% | Kalmar FF 39%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 48%, Kalmar FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.14 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights