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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat IK brage 1-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.70 xG and IK brage 2.03 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.42 against IK brage attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 22% | IK brage 46%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, IK brage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

IK brage's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.14 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights