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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.41 xG and Helsingborg 1.64 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against Helsingborg attack 1.11 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 43%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 48%, Helsingborg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Helsingborg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG, Helsingborg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights