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GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ostersunds FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Ostersunds FK 1-3 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.57 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.25 / defence 1.17 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 34%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, GIF Sundsvall 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.18 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights