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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Falkenbergs FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Falkenbergs FF 3-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.76 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.44 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 45% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 32%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, Falkenbergs FF 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.21 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights