Osters IF 3-2 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus Vasalund in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Monday 18 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Visma Arena, Osters IF have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vasalund (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Osters IF 0W, Vasalund 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Vasalund winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vasalund half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 38% versus Vasalund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 25% | Vasalund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.23 xG and Vasalund 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.861 / defence 0.830 | Vasalund attack 0.671 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.148. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Osters IF games / 24 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 51% | Draw 30% | Vasalund 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Vasalund 5.26. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Vasalund's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 30% | Vasalund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 51% | Draw 30% | Vasalund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 33% | xG Osters IF 1.23 / Vasalund 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.861 / def 0.830 | Vasalund attack 0.671 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Vasalund xG
33%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Vasalund kick off?
Osters IF vs Vasalund kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Vasalund?
Osters IF 3 - 2 Vasalund.
Where is Osters IF vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Vasalund part of?
Osters IF vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 51% chance of winning, Vasalund a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Osters IF and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 0 | Vasalund 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Vasalund in?
Osters IF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Vasalund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.86) and Vasalund's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasalund's attack (0.67x) against Osters IF's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
51%
1.98
30%
3.32
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Osters IF xG
Total xG
1.87
0.64
Vasalund xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.64 for Vasalund, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 8W 8D 8L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund's form line: 6W 4D 14L from 24 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (5W 5D 2L).
On the road, Vasalund have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.17 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 6W 4D 14L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Vasalund away?
Osters IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Vasalund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Vasalund in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Osters IF
0
Draws
1
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, Vasalund have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2021, when Osters IF 3-2 Vasalund.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 42%, Vasalund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Osters IF) and 67% (Vasalund).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Vasalund in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Osters IF's recent matches and 50% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Osters IF's recent games and 67% of Vasalund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Vasalund tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Vasalund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Vasalund 3-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.23 xG and Vasalund 0.64 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasalund outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Vasalund attack 0.67 / defence 1.33, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 51% | Draw 30% | Vasalund 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 25%, Vasalund 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasalund's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasalund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.