Osters IF 1-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Osters IF welcome Orebro SK to Visma Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Osters IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Osters IF, 1 for Orebro SK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Orebro SK trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 54% versus Orebro SK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 40% | Orebro SK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.77 xG and Orebro SK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.239 / defence 1.113 | Orebro SK attack 0.751 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.315. Data: 48 Osters IF games / 18 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 52% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 4.35. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | Orebro SK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 52% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Osters IF 1.77 / Orebro SK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.239 / def 1.113 | Orebro SK attack 0.751 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Orebro SK xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Osters IF 1 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Osters IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 52% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osters IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Orebro SK in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.99
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.87
1.10
Orebro SK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
25.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.10 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 20W 16D 12L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 11W 8D 29L from 48 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 3D 16L from 23 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.88 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 20W 16D 12L in their last 48 games (1.58 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 11W 8D 29L in their last 48 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Osters IF's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.83 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Osters IF
3
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
From 7 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Osters IF 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 56%, Orebro SK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osters IF) and 56% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Orebro SK in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Osters IF's recent matches and 39% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osters IF's recent games and 56% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Osters IF and Orebro SK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.77 xG and Orebro SK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.24 / defence 1.11 against Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 52% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 40%, Orebro SK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Orebro SK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.