Osters IF 1-4 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Ljungskile SK travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osters IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.07 xG and Ljungskile SK 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.720 / defence 0.719 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.607 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.342. Osters IF's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Osters IF's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 Osters IF games / 7 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 47% | Draw 33% | Ljungskile SK 20%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Ljungskile SK 5.00. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Ljungskile SK's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 47% | Draw 33% | Ljungskile SK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 29% | xG Osters IF 1.07 / Ljungskile SK 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.720 / def 0.719 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.607 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Ljungskile SK xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Osters IF 1 - 4 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 47% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Osters IF and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Ljungskile SK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.72x the league average against Ljungskile SK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ljungskile SK's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.03
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Osters IF xG
Total xG
1.66
0.59
Ljungskile SK xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.59 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Osters IF
0
Draws
1
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ljungskile SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Ljungskile SK 2-3 Osters IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Ljungskile SK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Osters IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ljungskile SK beat Osters IF 1-4 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.07 xG and Ljungskile SK 0.59 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ljungskile SK outscored their 0.59 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.72 / defence 0.72 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.61 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 47% | Draw 33% | Ljungskile SK 20%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Ljungskile SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.