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Poisson model rates IK brage at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees IK brage travel to Spiris Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Odds Breakdown

Bookmakers make Osters IF the preferred side — Osters IF priced at 2.10 (44% implied), Draw at 3.70 (25%), IK brage at 2.94 (31% implied).

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osters IF's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Spiris Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Spiris Arena.

Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.30 PPG, IK brage 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Osters IF, 4 for IK brage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 4–1 with Osters IF winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Osters IF show 6W 2D 6L from 14 outings in Superettan. Their scoring output is 1.5 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 14 games (14%). Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards per game.

IK brage's cumulative Superettan record this campaign: 4W 4D 6L from 14 matches. Their scoring output is 1.9 per match with 1.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 14 games (21%). Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game.

IK brage have been the more prolific side this season at 1.90 goals per game compared to 1.50 for the hosts. Osters IF lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 3).

Standings Snapshot

Osters IF hold the table advantage, sitting 8th with 20 points — 3 positions and 4 points clear of IK brage in 11th.

At home this season, Osters IF have gone 4W 1D 2L. IK brage have gone 3W 1D 3L on their travels.

In-Play Profile

Osters IF in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

IK brage in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 50% versus IK brage 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 48% | IK brage 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.25 xG and IK brage 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.868 / defence 1.048 | IK brage attack 0.962 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.458. Data: 14 Osters IF games / 44 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osters IF 32% | Draw 26% | IK brage 42%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates IK brage at 42% but the market prices Osters IF shorter — model leans away while the market follows the home side; consider draw no bet on the away team.

Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The model sees IK brage as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 42% versus the market's fair-implied 31% (priced at 2.94). With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting. The model sees Over 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 51% versus the market's fair-implied 64% (priced at 1.44).

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 50% | IK brage 50%. The model sees BTTS Yes as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 55% versus the market's fair-implied 66% (priced at 1.40).

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