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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.15 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.36 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.27 / defence 0.84 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.39 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 55% | Draw 21% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 60%, Vasteras SK FK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.74 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights