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Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Utsikten 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Utsikten 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.72 xG and Utsikten 1.20 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Utsikten attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 26%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Utsikten's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, Utsikten 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights