🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Umeå FC 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.48 xG and Umeå FC 0.91 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.36 / defence 0.85 against Umeå FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 71% | Draw 17% | Umeå FC 11%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 67%, Umeå FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Umeå FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Umeå FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights