Orgryte IS 3-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Skövde AIK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Skövde AIK's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Skövde AIK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Skövde AIK half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 63% and Skövde AIK 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Skövde AIK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.46 xG and Skövde AIK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.029 / defence 0.868 | Skövde AIK attack 0.788 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.264. Data: 58 Orgryte IS games / 28 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 20%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Skövde AIK 5.00. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 50% | Skövde AIK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Orgryte IS 1.46 / Skövde AIK 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.029 / def 0.868 | Skövde AIK attack 0.788 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Skövde AIK xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Orgryte IS 3 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 49% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.03) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (0.79x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.29
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.32
0.86
Skövde AIK xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.86 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 8W 12D 10L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 7L across 30 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.57 for Skövde AIK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 3W 7D 5L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.37 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Skövde AIK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 12W 11D 7L in their last 30 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Skövde AIK away?
Skövde AIK's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.07 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
3
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Skövde AIK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 53%, Skövde AIK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orgryte IS) and 53% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK in 40%; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Orgryte IS's games and 60% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 53% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Skövde AIK 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.46 xG and Skövde AIK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Skövde AIK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Skövde AIK attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 20%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, Skövde AIK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.20 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.