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Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sandviken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Sandviken 4-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.55 xG and Sandviken 1.03 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandviken landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.57 / defence 0.85 against Sandviken attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 70% | Draw 17% | Sandviken 13%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 60%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.47 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights