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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 1.08 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Orebro SK attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 29%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG, Orebro SK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights