Orgryte IS 3-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Orebro SK travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 August 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orgryte IS 1.40 PPG, Orebro SK 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orgryte IS, 1 for Orebro SK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 57% versus Orebro SK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 55% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.66 xG and Orebro SK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.140 / defence 1.071 | Orebro SK attack 0.849 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.210. Data: 47 Orgryte IS games / 47 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 25%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 4.00. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 12 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Orgryte IS 1.66 / Orebro SK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.140 / def 1.071 | Orebro SK attack 0.849 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Orebro SK xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 August 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS 3 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 50% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Orgryte IS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Record (5 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.14x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.00
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.76
1.10
Orebro SK xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
5%
21.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.10 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 11D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 13W 15D 19L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.19 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 3W 5D 15L from 23 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.34 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Orebro SK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 5, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 61%, Orebro SK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Orgryte IS and 74% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Orgryte IS's games and 56% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Orgryte IS's matches and 74% of Orebro SK's.
Do Orgryte IS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.66 xG and Orebro SK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 25%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 55%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.19 PPG, Orebro SK 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.