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Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS and Oddevold finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.47 xG and Oddevold 1.05 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.62 / defence 0.80 against Oddevold attack 0.99 / defence 0.64, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 27% | Oddevold 27%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 62%, Oddevold 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Oddevold's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.66 PPG, Oddevold 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights