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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.

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Full Analysis

Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Orgryte IS (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi.

Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Orgryte IS. A 1.40 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (2.60 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 65% versus Landskrona BoIS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 61% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.98 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.302 / defence 0.897 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.828 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.154. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Orgryte IS games / 54 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 63% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 15%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Landskrona BoIS 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 40% | Landskrona BoIS 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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