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Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 3, as Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.46 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 27%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights