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Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Falkenbergs FF 4-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.16 / defence 0.79 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 100%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Orgryte IS scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Falkenbergs FF scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.