Orebro SK 5-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK meet at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.20 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 43% versus Vasteras SK FK 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 49% | Vasteras SK FK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.92 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.619 / defence 0.947 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.907 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.308. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Orebro SK games / 53 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 29% | Draw 32% | Vasteras SK FK 39%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Vasteras SK FK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 30% | Vasteras SK FK 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 29% | Draw 32% | Vasteras SK FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Orebro SK 0.92 / Vasteras SK FK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.619 / def 0.947 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.907 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Vasteras SK FK xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Orebro SK 5 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 29% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.62x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.91x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
29%
3.49
32%
3.12
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.04
1.12
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.12 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 12W 10D 31L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 13W 22D 18L from 53 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.15 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 9D 11L from 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.34 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 10D 31L in their last 53 games (0.87 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 13W 22D 18L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.00 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Vasteras SK FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 5-2 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
4
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 46%, Vasteras SK FK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Orebro SK) and 42% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 58% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Orebro SK's recent games and 42% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Vasteras SK FK 5-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.92 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.62 / defence 0.95 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 29% | Draw 32% | Vasteras SK FK 39%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 49%, Vasteras SK FK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.87 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.