🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orebro SK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Orebro SK 0-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.59 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.87 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 54% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 21%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights