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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Utsikten 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK beat Utsikten 2-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.77 xG and Utsikten 1.04 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Utsikten attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 54% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 22%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 55%, Utsikten 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Utsikten's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.98 PPG, Utsikten 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights