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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Orebro SK and Umeå FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Orebro SK and Umeå FC drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.56 xG and Umeå FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Umeå FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 44% | Draw 26% | Umeå FC 30%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, Umeå FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Umeå FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.37 PPG, Umeå FC 0.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Umeå FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights