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Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.57 xG and Sandviken 1.40 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Sandviken attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 41% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 34%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.30 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights