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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Orebro SK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 1-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.23 xG and Orgryte IS 1.51 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against Orgryte IS attack 1.17 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 30% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 43%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights