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Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK and Oddevold finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.89 xG and Oddevold 1.70 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Oddevold attack 1.13 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 19% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 56%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, Oddevold 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Oddevold's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.98 PPG, Oddevold 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights