🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Orebro SK and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK and Kalmar FF finished level at 2-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.86 xG and Kalmar FF 1.48 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against Kalmar FF attack 0.98 / defence 0.77, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 22% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 52%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.30 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights