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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Orebro SK and IK brage share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Orebro SK and IK brage drew 3-3 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.69 xG and IK brage 1.23 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.67 / defence 1.07 against IK brage attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 21% | Draw 30% | IK brage 49%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights