🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Helsingborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orebro SK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helsingborg beat Orebro SK 0-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.16 xG and Helsingborg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Helsingborg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Helsingborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 36% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 35%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, Helsingborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights