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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Orebro SK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.67 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.64 / defence 1.05 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 22% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 46%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights