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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Falkenbergs FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK beat Falkenbergs FF 4-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.39 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Falkenbergs FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 40% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 34%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, Falkenbergs FF 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Falkenbergs FF arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights