Orebro SK 2-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Degerfors IF at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.60 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 2 for Degerfors IF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 63% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Degerfors IF 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.139 / defence 1.017 | Degerfors IF attack 0.981 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 0.980. Data: 36 Orebro SK games / 6 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 52% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 4.35. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 52% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Orebro SK 1.60 / Degerfors IF 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.139 / def 1.017 | Degerfors IF attack 0.981 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.306 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Orebro SK 2 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 52% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orebro SK and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Degerfors IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (1.14) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.91
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.58
0.98
Degerfors IF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
21.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.98 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 13L across 30 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 6W 7D 2L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Degerfors IF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.67 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Orebro SK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2021, when Degerfors IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 33%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Orebro SK) and 53% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 40% of games; Degerfors IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Orebro SK's recent games and 53% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Degerfors IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Degerfors IF 2-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Degerfors IF 0.98 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Degerfors IF attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 52% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 63%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.