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Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Oddevold.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Oddevold 1-5 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.83 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Oddevold fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.16 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Oddevold (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights