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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oddevold beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.28 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 2.10 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 23% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights