Oddevold 2-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utsikten make the trip to Rimnersvallen to face Oddevold in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 16 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oddevold have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 2L across 8 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Oddevold are significantly better at Rimnersvallen than their overall form suggests.
Utsikten (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Utsikten are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Oddevold 1W, Utsikten 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 3–2 with Oddevold winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Utsikten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 67% versus Utsikten 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 67% | Utsikten 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.97 xG and Utsikten 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.768 / defence 1.243 | Utsikten attack 0.875 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.197. Oddevold's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Oddevold games / 48 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 27% | Draw 30% | Utsikten 43%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Utsikten 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 62% | Utsikten 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 27% | Draw 30% | Utsikten 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Oddevold 0.97 / Utsikten 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.768 / def 1.243 | Utsikten attack 0.875 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Utsikten xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Utsikten kick off?
Oddevold vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Utsikten?
Oddevold 2 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Oddevold vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Utsikten part of?
Oddevold vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 27% chance of winning, Utsikten a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oddevold and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Utsikten?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 0W.
What form are Oddevold and Utsikten in?
Oddevold (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Utsikten (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.77x the league average against Utsikten's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (0.88x) against Oddevold's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
27%
3.75
30%
3.30
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.27
1.30
Utsikten xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.30 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oddevold's recent record stands at 4W 7D 7L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Oddevold against 1.39 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 2W 4D 2L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Oddevold are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Utsikten away?
Oddevold's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.25 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Oddevold
0
Draws
0
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 4, Utsikten have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Oddevold 1-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Utsikten?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 62%, Utsikten 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Oddevold) and 38% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Oddevold's games and 50% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Oddevold's recent games and 38% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Utsikten tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat Utsikten 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Utsikten 2-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.97 xG and Utsikten 1.30 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against Utsikten attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 27% | Draw 30% | Utsikten 43%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Oddevold win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 67%, Utsikten 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.06 PPG, Utsikten 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.