Oddevold 3-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oddevold at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Trelleborg at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold at Rimnersvallen this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Oddevold are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Oddevold have won 1, Trelleborg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oddevold trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 58% versus Trelleborg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 58% | Trelleborg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.52 xG and Trelleborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.829 / defence 1.172 | Trelleborg attack 0.764 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.283. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Oddevold games / 48 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 45% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Trelleborg 3.45. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 70% | Trelleborg 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 45% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Oddevold 1.52 / Trelleborg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.829 / def 1.172 | Trelleborg attack 0.764 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Trelleborg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Trelleborg kick off?
Oddevold vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Oddevold 3 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Oddevold vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Trelleborg part of?
Oddevold vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oddevold and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Trelleborg?
Record (3 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Trelleborg in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.85
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Trelleborg xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.15 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oddevold's recent record stands at 16W 17D 15L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 22L across 48 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.35 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 7W 8D 9L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 7W 3D 14L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 0.92 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 16W 17D 15L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Trelleborg away?
Oddevold's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.21 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Trelleborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Oddevold
1
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Trelleborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Oddevold 3-2 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Trelleborg?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 67%, Trelleborg 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Oddevold) and 46% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Oddevold's recent matches and 29% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Oddevold's recent games and 46% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Trelleborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Trelleborg 3-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.52 xG and Trelleborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Trelleborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 45% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 29%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 58%, Trelleborg 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.35 PPG, Trelleborg 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.