Oddevold 2-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandviken at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Sandviken at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oddevold — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's home record at Rimnersvallen: 2W 3D 2L from 7 Superettan appearances (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Oddevold are significantly better at Rimnersvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken away from home this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sandviken's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Oddevold's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oddevold, 1 for Sandviken and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Sandviken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sandviken in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 65% versus Sandviken 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 65% | Sandviken 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.16 xG and Sandviken 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.691 / defence 1.174 | Sandviken attack 0.898 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.201. Oddevold's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Oddevold games / 17 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 33% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 38%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sandviken 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 57% | Sandviken 44%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 33% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Oddevold 1.16 / Sandviken 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.691 / def 1.174 | Sandviken attack 0.898 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sandviken xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Sandviken kick off?
Oddevold vs Sandviken kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Sandviken?
Oddevold 2 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Oddevold vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Sandviken part of?
Oddevold vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 33% chance of winning, Sandviken a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Oddevold and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Sandviken?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Sandviken in?
Oddevold (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Sandviken (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Sandviken's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.54
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.43
1.26
Sandviken xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.26 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oddevold come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 6D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandviken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Oddevold — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Oddevold's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.53 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sandviken in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Sandviken away?
Oddevold's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.29 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sandviken in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 7 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Oddevold's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Oddevold
3
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 1, Sandviken have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2026, when Oddevold 2-2 Sandviken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sandviken see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 57%, Sandviken 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Oddevold) and 57% (Sandviken).
On the defensive side: Sandviken in 43%; Oddevold have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Oddevold's games and 57% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Oddevold's recent games and 57% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Oddevold and Sandviken share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 18, as Oddevold and Sandviken drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.16 xG and Sandviken 1.26 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.69 / defence 1.17 against Sandviken attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 33% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 38%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 65%, Sandviken 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.